> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.europeans.today/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Russia may declare war on Ukraine on May 9 – and use it as a reason to double down on attacks. - URL: https://www.europeans.today/2022/05/08/russia-may-declare-war-on-ukraine-on-may-9-and-use-it-as-a-reason-to-double-down-on-attacks/ - Published: 2022-05-08T11:22:00.000Z - Updated: 2022-05-09T04:47:33.000Z - Description: Western officials say that Russia may officially declare war on Ukraine on May 9. An international relations expert explains why this day is significant, and why a war declaration would matter. - Author: Contribee - Tags: War in Ukraine, Analysis, Moscow, Moscow Victory Day Parade, Nationalism, Russia, Ukraine, Vladimir Putin, Victory Day, War Propaganda ### Western officials say that Russia may officially declare war on Ukraine on May 9\. An international relations expert explains why this day is significant, and why a war declaration would matter. ###### First published: May 2022. --- The Russian government has consistently called its war on Ukraine a *“[special military operation](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-putin-authorises-military-operations-donbass-domestic-media-2022-02-24/?ref=europeans.today).”* But on May 9, 2022, Russia may officially declare war on Ukraine, [Western officials have warned](https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/03/europe/russia-ukraine-declaration-of-war-intl-hnk-ml/index.html?ref=europeans.today) – more than two months after Russia first invaded. Ukrainians [have also expressed](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/04/world/europe/ukraine-russia-putin-victory-day.html?ref=europeans.today) fear that Russia could use May 9, a day celebrated in commemoration of Soviet triumph over the Nazis during World War II, to escalate attacks on Ukraine. Russia’s actually declaring war would represent a major shift in how Russian President Vladimir Putin and his colleagues publicly address the conflict. We asked [international relations scholar Professor Michael Allen](https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=bSApaj4AAAAJ&hl=en&ref=europeans.today) five questions about what an actual war declaration would mean, and why it matters. ### Without free, impartial, and fact-based media, democracy will always be controlled by those who control the media. 𝗣𝗠𝗣 needs your support today. [DONATE £5 or just £2 MONTHLY](https://www.europeans.today/support-pmp-magazine/) ### 1\. What is important about May 9? May 9, known as [*Victory Day* in Russia, commemorates](https://time.com/6173515/russia-victory-day-history/?ref=europeans.today) the formal surrender of Nazi Germany in 1945. While *Victory Day* celebrations date back to [the 1960s in Russia](https://time.com/6173515/russia-victory-day-history/?ref=europeans.today), Putin has [made the event](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61332283?ref=europeans.today) an elaborate show of military troops and vehicles on parade, as well as [military aircraft flybys](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/24/russia-victory-day-parade-2020-why-it-matters.html?ref=europeans.today) that are broadcast live to millions of Russians. ### 2\. Why would Putin declare war on Victory Day? One key reason Putin [might declare war](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/putin-speech-may-9-victory-day-russia/629742/?ref=europeans.today) on *Victory Day* is that Putin has falsely sold this war to the Russian military and people as [a war against Nazis](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/17/world/europe/ukraine-putin-nazis.html?ref=europeans.today). Putin has [incorrectly argued](https://theconversation.com/putins-claims-that-ukraine-is-committing-genocide-are-baseless-but-not-unprecedented-177511?ref=europeans.today) that Nazis run Ukraine, and Russia is intervening to *“[denazify](https://www.npr.org/2022/03/01/1083677765/putin-denazify-ukraine-russia-history?ref=europeans.today)”* the country by removing them from power. This annual celebration is now another way to convince Russian people that the high costs of war – both financial and the number of lives lost – are justified. Second, [United States officials believe Putin wanted](https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/02/politics/russia-shifting-focus-victory-eastern-ukraine/index.html?ref=europeans.today) to celebrate *Victory Day* in 2022 by [announcing victory in Ukraine](https://thehill.com/policy/international/3270471-what-is-russias-victory-day-and-what-might-it-mean-for-ukraine/?ref=europeans.today). However, the Russian military has underperformed and has not met this expectation of [quickly capturing the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-battle-for-kyiv-dc559574ce9f6683668fa221af2d5340?ref=europeans.today). Instead, Ukrainian intelligence expects that Russia may [showcase the besieged eastern Ukrainian city of Mariupol](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/05/putin-hopes-to-claim-mariupol-as-key-prop-in-victory-day-celebrations?ref=europeans.today) as part of the *Victory Day* celebrations. Instead of being confronted with [Russian military setbacks](https://www.npr.org/2022/04/13/1092522385/after-major-setbacks-in-the-war-with-ukraine-russian-forces-regroup?ref=europeans.today), Putin can use *Victory Day* as a call to arms and potentially to rally Russian people to support a larger, and more prolonged, war. --- *For more stories like this, sign up to our [FREE Briefings](javascript:;) today.* --- ### 3\. Is Russia’s invasion not already a war? [Conflict scholars](https://academic.oup.com/isq/article/55/4/1025/1799090?ref=europeans.today) have [different definitions of war](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167268117302512?ref=europeans.today), but most definitions would classify the current Ukrainian conflict as a war. One of the [more commonly](https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/resort-to-war/book236426?ref=europeans.today) used definitions of war is from the [*Correlates of War* project](https://correlatesofwar.org/?ref=europeans.today), an initiative led by U.S. scholars that tries [to identify and measure different kinds of conflict](https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/world-politics/article/abs/correlates-of-war-project-interim-report-and-rationale/E7C9D294C073BFD8799291F61EECE0E1?ref=europeans.today). This project [defines a war between countries](https://correlatesofwar.org/data-sets/COW-war?ref=europeans.today) as a conflict that *“must involve sustained combat, involving organized armed forces, resulting in a minimum of 1,000 battle-related combatant fatalities within a twelve-month period.”* It must also have effective resistance on both sides. This definition does not include sporadic fighting, low-intensity conflict and one-sided massacres by a government, for example – but the Russian-Ukrainian conflict matches this technical description. Still, Russia has [yet to call the conflict a war](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/2/do-not-call-ukraine-invasion-a-war-russia-tells-media-schools?ref=europeans.today). ### 4\. Why hasn’t Russia already declared war? A declaration of war creates a legally defined war. Few countries have ever legally declared war. The U.S., for example, has fought [13 wars since 1816](https://correlatesofwar.org/data-sets/COW-war?ref=europeans.today), but *Congress* declared war in only [four of those conflicts](https://history.house.gov/Institution/Origins-Development/War-Powers/?ref=europeans.today). Countries avoid declaring war for a variety of reasons. Domestically, populations are less likely to support a conflict if it is likely to be expensive and result in many lost lives of soldiers and civilians. However, if a population sees a conflict as limited and quick, then [people are more likely to support it](https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-organization/article/abs/domestic-audience-costs-in-international-relations-an-experimental-approach/DE9C218365E2AF849FC6ECF67CCC45F1?ref=europeans.today). [Research has found](https://academic.oup.com/ijpor/article-abstract/29/4/657/2669483?ref=europeans.today) that public support does depend on [how costly the war appears to be](https://theconversation.com/why-russians-support-putins-foreign-policy-64353?ref=europeans.today) – though this is less true for people who are nationalistic and likely to support a war under any conditions. A Russian acknowledgement that it is in a formal state of war could invite additional international scrutiny. Some [international treaties and international organizations](https://theconversation.com/international-law-says-putins-war-against-ukraine-is-illegal-does-that-matter-177438?ref=europeans.today) have tried to define when a war is legal or illegal. Under [international law](https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/applic/ihl/ihl.nsf/vwTreaties1949.xsp?ref=europeans.today), engaging in a [war of aggression](https://www.state.gov/g7-foreign-ministers-statement-on-russias-war-of-aggression-against-ukraine/?ref=europeans.today) against a sovereign country is one of the more significant crimes a country can commit. Both the [*United Nations Charter*](https://www.un.org/en/about-us/un-charter/full-text?ref=europeans.today) and the [*International Criminal Court*](https://www.coalitionfortheicc.org/explore/icc-crimes/crime-aggression?ref=europeans.today) seek to outlaw and punish wars of aggression – meaning, conflicts waged without the justification of self-defense. A formal war would also make it harder for Russia supporters like [China to deny that Russia has invaded](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/02/24/world/china-ukraine-reaction/?ref=europeans.today) Ukraine and [is at war](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-beijing-economy-europe-f904dfdf7f17cf1259b34d91d226d353?ref=europeans.today). Other countries may find it harder to [remain neutral](https://theconversation.com/why-india-chose-a-path-of-proactive-neutrality-on-ukraine-182403?ref=europeans.today). ### No billionaire owner. No wealthy shareholders. **PMP** only exists thanks to our readers’ donations. We need your support today. [DONATE £5 or just £2 MONTHLY](https://www.europeans.today/support-pmp-magazine/) ### 5\. What would change if Russia declares war? The Ukraine conflict’s becoming an official war, instead of a special military operation, would mean that Putin can [justify expanding conscription and institute a draft](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-putin-scales-back-may-9-victory-parade-ukraine-war-invasion-takes-toll-1703756?ref=europeans.today) of Russians into the military. Russia is facing [severe personnel losses](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/08/russia-war-dead-soldiers-bodies/?ref=europeans.today) in soldier fatalities, with an estimated **7,000** to **15,000** Russian soldiers or more killed as of early April. The Ukraine war is less than three months old and Russia has lost more soldiers now than during the 10-year [Afghanistan war that it started in 1979](https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2014/08/the-soviet-war-in-afghanistan-1979-1989/100786/?ref=europeans.today). Russia’s human and [material losses are so great](https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2022/05/02/russian-victory-day-parade-cut-by-35-emphasizing-ukraines-battlefield-prowess/?sh=5f4e98613485&ref=europeans.today) that Putin has been forced to scale down the *Victory Day* celebration this year with fewer military vehicles. Russia also faces difficulties in both securing [additional financial resources](https://theconversation.com/russia-faces-first-foreign-default-since-1918-heres-how-it-could-complicate-putins-ability-to-wage-war-in-ukraine-181139?ref=europeans.today), as well as soldiers. It has [even turned to foreign fighters](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/23/russias-foreign-fighters?ref=europeans.today) to continue the conflict in Ukraine. Drafting Russian men could help fill this key gap in military personnel during the Ukraine war. A declaration of war would allow Russia to mobilize its population to fight a longer war, which Putin initially assumed he would have won by now. A declaration of war would help Putin prolong an already costly war. ![PMP Magazine](https://storage.ghost.io/c/15/40/1540bec0-7154-4feb-b8e1-97f579155b08/content/images/2021/09/end-flat-1.png "PMP Magazine") --- **What did you think of this article?** [🤩](https://forms.gle/tRe7igVtMPaiAPtJ8?ref=europeans.today "Great") [😀](https://forms.gle/tRe7igVtMPaiAPtJ8?ref=europeans.today "Good") [🤔](https://forms.gle/tRe7igVtMPaiAPtJ8?ref=europeans.today "Not sure") [😴](https://forms.gle/tRe7igVtMPaiAPtJ8?ref=europeans.today "Boring") [😮](https://forms.gle/tRe7igVtMPaiAPtJ8?ref=europeans.today "Surprised") [😭](https://forms.gle/tRe7igVtMPaiAPtJ8?ref=europeans.today "Sad") [🤬](https://forms.gle/tRe7igVtMPaiAPtJ8?ref=europeans.today "Angry") [🤯](https://forms.gle/tRe7igVtMPaiAPtJ8?ref=europeans.today "Gobsmacked") --- | **— AUTHOR —**▫ *[Professor Michael A. Allen](https://www.boisestate.edu/sps-politicalscience/faculty/michael-a-allen/?ref=europeans.today), Associate Professor of Political Science, Boise State University.*► *[twitter](https://www.twitter.com/michaelallen?ref=europeans.today)* | GET THEM INVOLVED: Contact Your Politician | | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------ | --- --- ##### Sources **Text:** This piece was originally published in [The Conversation](https://theconversation.com/russia-may-declare-war-on-ukraine-on-may-9-and-use-it-as-a-reason-to-double-down-on-attacks-182574?ref=europeans.today) and re-published in PMP Magazine on 8 May 2022\. | The author writes in a personal capacity. - **Cover:** Wikimedia/[Mil.ru](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Moscow%5FVictory%5FDay%5FParade%5F%282019%29%5F59.jpg?ref=europeans.today). - Moscow Victory Day Parade, 2019\. (Licensed under a [Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License](http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/?ref=europeans.today).) ![Creative Commons License](https://i.creativecommons.org/l/by-sa/4.0/88x31.png "Cover photograph license") ![The Conversation](https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182574/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic)