> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.europeans.today/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # The tactics Tory rebels could use to derail Boris Johnson. - URL: https://www.europeans.today/2022/06/12/the-tactics-tory-rebels-could-use-to-derail-boris-johnson/ - Published: 2022-06-12T20:30:00.000Z - Updated: 2023-11-14T02:21:55.000Z - Description: Boris Johnson wants to move on to other government businesses, but the PM’s opponents in the Conservative Party (and there are many) could bog down and/or derail his legislative agenda to contest his leadership. - Author: Thomas Caygill - Tags: UK Politics, Analysis, Boris Johnson, Conservative Party, House of Commons, House of Lords, Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP), Tories, Tory Rebels, United Kingdom, Vote of No Confidence, Vote of No Confidence in Boris Johnson ### Boris Johnson wants to move on to other government businesses, but the PM’s opponents in the Conservative Party (and there are many) could bog down and/or derail his legislative agenda to contest his leadership. ###### First published: June 2022. --- Boris Johnson is keen to [move on](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/jun/07/boris-johnson-no-confidence-vote-conservatives-rebels-uk-politics-latest?ref=europeans.today) from the confidence vote that, while showing a [victory on paper](https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1533902447625789440?s=20&t=0N2CWkgC3otmjg7Fe2OJig&ref=europeans.today) for him, reveals an extremely divided Conservative Party. Choppy waters lie ahead for the prime minister and his government, whose [ambitious legislative agenda](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61000688?ref=europeans.today) is now threatened by Tory MPs planning to rebel through vote strikes or other means. > *“Four times the number needed to wipe out the government’s majority on a range of issues.”* At the time of writing, the government has a 75-seat [working majority](https://members.parliament.uk/parties/Commons?ref=europeans.today), putting it in a stronger position than Theresa May’s government following her 2019 confidence vote. Still, the divisions within the party are clear – **148** MPs voted against Johnson. Their numbers are four times the number needed to wipe out the government’s majority on a range of issues. While some of those rebels will go back to being loyal, others will not. Those rebels who are determined to continue their hostilities have suggested that they will take part in a [vote strike](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/07/rebel-tories-plan-vote-strikes-to-capitalise-on-pms-weakened-position?ref=europeans.today), by which they will abstain in key votes. A government with a 75-seat majority can deal with 74 MPs abstaining, but if it were to happen en masse it would lead to government defeats, especially if those on vote strike combine with those voting against key pieces of legislation. This course of action is likely to remain limited. Doing it once causes an impact, but with each time they do it, its value decreases. It also raises the risk of them having the whip removed. With a majority of 75, the prime minister can’t afford to lose too many MPs, but he certainly has the power to send a message to a number of them. ### Without free, impartial, and fact-based media, information and democracy will always be controlled by governments and those who control the media. Support ****PMP** Today! [CHIP IN or DONATE REGULARLY](https://www.europeans.today/support-pmp-magazine/) ### Deal or no deal Instead of vote strikes, what is most likely to become the key legislative game in the *House of Commons* is bargaining. Rather than trying to defeat legislation outright, MPs are likely to bargain their support for [key changes to bills](https://twitter.com/nmdacosta/status/1534154216238993408?s=20&t=yG6aW%5F7Oj8n76YHa4YXedg&ref=europeans.today). And there are a lot of MPs to keep happy – **148** rebels are effectively worth four times the government’s majority, as each rebel’s vote is worth two if they switch from voting with to voting against the government. The first piece of legislation these rebellious MPs are likely to take apart is the forthcoming bill designed to override parts of the [Northern Ireland protocol](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-61719444?ref=europeans.today). This is likely to incense MPs who are concerned about the UK potentially breaking international law and those who are concerned about the effect of the legislation on Northern Ireland [more widely](https://twitter.com/Alan%5FMcGuinness/status/1534451077982060544?s=20&t=s-4WqUpFWvVJQKrJNxrV9w&ref=europeans.today). > *“The rebels are a mix of Remainers and Brexiters and they include all wings of the party.”* While MPs won’t rebel on every issue, rebellions have the potential to derail several policy areas on several fronts. Rebels are not a cohesive group and there are few issues which unite them, apart from having no confidence in the prime minister’s leadership. The rebels are a mix of Remainers and Brexiters and they include all wings of the party, as well as different intakes (2019, 2017, 2015, 2010 and beyond). Whips will struggle to corral these rebellious MPs when the time comes to vote – and given their divided nature, the rebels may also struggle to organise themselves. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/15/40/1540bec0-7154-4feb-b8e1-97f579155b08/content/images/2022/06/wwww-007.jpg) ###### The government does not have a majority in the House of Lords. | [Instagram/UK Parliament](https://www.instagram.com/p/CdnV-4DomkN/?ref=europeans.today) One benefit of having a non-cohesive group of rebels is that the government can try and play them against each other, but there are costs associated too. For instance, giving in to the demands of one particular group could well enrage another. There is also the chance that normally loyal MPs will dive into the bargaining feeding frenzy as well to avoid missing out on concessions they want. It is important to remember that the government does not have a majority in the *House of Lords* and their lordships have been very willing to test the government on certain amendments. [Research shows](https://www.ucl.ac.uk/constitution-unit/research-areas/parliament/changing-role-house-lords/government-defeats-house-lords?ref=europeans.today) that in the last parliamentary session ending May 2022, the government was defeated 128 times in the *Lords*. When deciding which battles to fight, the *Lords* usually take interest in how an issue has been received in the *House of Commons*. If the government faces a reduced majority on a particular issue or amendment, the *Lords* tend to reinsert it and send it back to the *House of Commons* to allow them to think again (in the hope that the government will end up having to accept it). If the *House of Commons* becomes more rebellious, the *Lords* will probably become even more assertive. Here, the government will be fighting battles in both *Houses*, and rebels in the *Commons* will probably coordinate with peers to get what they want. ### Some prospered during the pandemic & claimed hundreds of millions of pounds from the government’s furlough scheme. ***PMP** *received nothing.* Help us as we crowdfund to make sure we continue our work. [Please CHIP IN to keep us going!](https://www.europeans.today/crowdfunding/) ### Staying the course The situation will need a strong whipping system, not just in terms of using their usual tactics to get MPs to vote how the leadership want them to, but also by listening to the concerns of backbenchers and reporting them back to the leadership. Whipping is a two-way street – and whips should pick their battles accordingly. The government would also be wise to make use of backbench policy committees to gauge the opinion of backbenchers before introducing legislation, so it knows what the key areas of contestation will be. > “The government will be at the behest of Conservative backbenchers for the foreseeable future.” These potential solutions as well as the rebelliousness of MPs are likely to slow down the legislative process, and some bills will inevitably get bogged down. So the government’s ambition to [present 38 bills to parliament](https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/queens-speech-2022?ref=europeans.today) this session seems even more wildly optimistic than it did before the confidence vote. To navigate these choppy waters, the government needs to be willing to compromise. It will be at the behest of Conservative backbenchers for the foreseeable future. ![PMP Magazine](https://storage.ghost.io/c/15/40/1540bec0-7154-4feb-b8e1-97f579155b08/content/images/2021/09/end-flat-1.png "PMP Magazine") --- --- ##### Sources - **Text:* This piece was originally published in [The Conversation](https://theconversation.com/the-tactics-tory-rebels-could-use-to-derail-boris-johnson-184699?ref=europeans.today) and re-published in PMP Magazine on 12 June 2022\. | The author writes in a personal capacity.* - **Cover:* Flickr/[Number 10](https://www.flickr.com/photos/number10gov/52133900253/?ref=europeans.today). - PM Boris Johnson. | 9 June 2022\. (Licensed under a [Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License](http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/?ref=europeans.today).)* ![Creative Commons License](https://i.creativecommons.org/l/by-sa/4.0/88x31.png "Cover photograph license") ![The Conversation](https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184699/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic)