> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.europeans.today/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Have Trump’s tariffs affected his popularity? - URL: https://www.europeans.today/2025/04/17/have-trumps-tariffs-affected-his-popularity/ - Published: 2025-04-17T00:10:00.000Z - Updated: 2025-04-18T02:35:39.000Z - Description: Donald Trump’s trade war rattled markets and voter confidence — bond sell-offs and rising prices dent approval ratings, especially among independents, risking Republican losses in 2026 midterms as Democrats gain favour. - Author: Professor Paul Whiteley - Tags: US Politics, Donald Trump, Analysis, Wall Street, US Trade Policy, US Economy, Presidential Polls, Opinion Polls, United States, Tariffs, US Tariffs, Trump's Tariffs, 2026 Midterms, US Elections **What you need to know** 🔹 Donald Trump’s tariffs caused stock market turmoil and unexpected bond market sell-offs. 🔹 Now, polls show voters expect price hikes; independents increasingly disapprove of Trump’s approach. 🔹 Independents, now the largest voter group, shift support towards Democrats ahead of 2026. 🔹 Falling approval ratings suggest Republicans may lose more seats than in the 2018 midterms. W hen Donald Trump launched [a trade war](https://apnews.com/article/tariffs-timeline-trade-war-trump-canada-mexico-china-a9d714eea677488ef9397547d838dbd0?ref=europeans.today) on April 2, he produced enormous volatility [in stock markets](https://theconversation.com/trump-has-shown-he-will-backtrack-on-tariffs-what-does-that-say-about-how-to-wage-a-trade-war-254265?ref=europeans.today) around the world, but since then, upheaval in the [bond market](https://theconversation.com/jitters-in-the-us-bond-market-look-like-the-main-reason-trump-hit-pause-on-higher-tariffs-254410?ref=europeans.today) has forced him to row back on some of his tariffs. Investors traditionally consider US [Treasury bonds](https://theconversation.com/jitters-in-the-us-bond-market-look-like-the-main-reason-trump-hit-pause-on-higher-tariffs-254410?ref=europeans.today) to be a safe asset with a guaranteed return and therefore preferable to stocks when the latter are falling in price. However, instead of buying these bonds investors have been selling them, and this produced a rapid fall in [their price](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/apr/09/dramatic-sell-off-of-us-government-bonds-as-tariff-war-panic-deepens?ref=europeans.today). While stock prices have recovered somewhat in Europe and Asia they have continued [to fall in](https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/10/investing/us-stock-market-dow-tariffs/index.html?ref=europeans.today) the US. But what do US consumers make of all this? Has the shifting of the bond market and economic uncertainty affected voter confidence, and approval, in the US president? A round-up of recent polls suggest, US voters expect to see higher [prices for goods](https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2025/04/15/trump-approval-rating-tracker-latest-survey-shows-record-low-as-americans-oppose-new-tariffs/?ref=europeans.today) as a result of the tariffs, with [**75%** expecting short-term price hikes](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-trump-tariffs-13-04-2025/?ref=europeans.today), and **48%** long-term. While **51%** like Trump’s trade goals, only **37%** approve of his approach. Meanwhile, **91%** of Republicans think the president has a clear plan for tariffs and trade, but only **16%** of Democrats and **43%** of independent voters do. Republican [voters are also much more willing](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-trump-tariffs-13-04-2025/?ref=europeans.today) to take a longer time to make up their minds about Trump’s trade policy, with **49%** saying they will assess it in a year’s time or longer, compared to **36%** of independents and **21%** of Democrats who are willing to wait that long. | | [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/15/40/1540bec0-7154-4feb-b8e1-97f579155b08/content/images/2025/04/0000209c-min--1-.jpg)](https://storage.ghost.io/c/15/40/1540bec0-7154-4feb-b8e1-97f579155b08/content/images/2025/04/0000209c-min--1-.jpg?ref=europeans.today)// EUROPEANS TODAY | | | | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | The latest [Morning Consult poll](https://x.com/MorningConsult/status/1911893823866745249?ref=europeans.today) on April 14 gives Trump his lowest approval rating yet for his second term, at **45%**. A few weeks ago, it was clear from the polls that there were massive differences between Democrats and Republicans when it [came to approval](https://theconversation.com/%20three-graphs-that-show-whats-happening-with-donald-trumps-popularity-252857?ref=europeans.today) for Trump’s handling of his job. An [*Economist/YouGov* poll](https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport%5FngfganU.pdf?ref=europeans.today) completed on March 18 showed that **6%** of Democrats, **90%** of Republicans and **37%** of independents approved of his performance at that time. A more recent [*Economist/YouGov* poll](https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport%5FpXJ0PxA.pdf?ref=europeans.today), completed on April 8 after the trade war began, shows a significant change in the views of independent voters. The Democrat and Republican approval/disapproval ratings are about the same as in the earlier survey by the *Economist*, but approval among voters who class themselves as independents has fallen by **5%** to **32%**. | | [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/15/40/1540bec0-7154-4feb-b8e1-97f579155b08/content/images/2025/04/0000209d-min.jpg)](https://storage.ghost.io/c/15/40/1540bec0-7154-4feb-b8e1-97f579155b08/content/images/2025/04/0000209d-min.jpg?ref=europeans.today)// [THE ECONOMIST/YOUGOV POLL](https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport%5FpXJ0PxA.pdf?ref=europeans.today) \-- EUROPEANS TODAY | | | | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | Put simply, the nonaligned voters in America have shifted against Trump over tariffs. This is significant because they [are the largest political group](https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/registered-voters-by-party?ref=europeans.today) in the US, at **37%** of electors compared with **34%** Democrats and **29%** Republicans. Also significant is that, according [to Morning Consult](https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/donald-trump-congress-policy-republicans-polling?ref=europeans.today), the average voter is more likely to hold positive than negative views about Democrats in Congress, for the first time since the 2024 election, at **47%** to **46%**. If this shift continues, and independent voters support Democrat candidates in the 2026 mid-term elections, it means that the Democrats are likely to take control of Congress. This will give them greater opportunity to block presidential initiatives to [introduce new bills](https://www.usa.gov/how-laws-are-made?ref=europeans.today), which must be passed by both the House of Representatives and the Senate to become law. If, at some point, the Democratic party wanted to try and impeach Trump, they would need far more Congressional votes [than they currently have](https://about.bgov.com/insights/congress/balance-of-power-in-the-u-s-house-and-senate/?ref=europeans.today#which-party-currently-controls-congress). The Republicans currently have majorities in both Houses. [Impeachment](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/impeachment.htm?ref=europeans.today) requires a simple majority in the House of Representatives, but a two-thirds majority in the Senate, so it is not an easy thing to do. That said, the point is often made that Trump is a transactional politician and, as a result, attracts little personal loyalty from many of the people around him, particularly in Congress. However, if his approval ratings started to rapidly deteriorate, and the midterm elections turn into a disaster for their party, some Republicans may be ready to turn on Trump. | | [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/15/40/1540bec0-7154-4feb-b8e1-97f579155b08/content/images/2025/04/0000209e-min.jpg)](https://storage.ghost.io/c/15/40/1540bec0-7154-4feb-b8e1-97f579155b08/content/images/2025/04/0000209e-min.jpg?ref=europeans.today)// EUROPEANS TODAY | | | | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | ### **Presidential approval and midterms** We can get an idea of the likelihood of a midterm swing by looking at the relationship between presidential approval and support for the president’s party in all 20 midterm elections since the Second World War. It is clear that there is a strong positive relationship between presidential approval and the success of his party in the mid-term elections (correlation = 0.57). In other words, when the president is popular, his party does well, and when he is unpopular, it does badly. Donald Trump did rather badly in the [midterm elections in 2018](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-46120373?ref=europeans.today) during his first term of office. On that occasion, the Republicans lost **40** House seats, a significantly greater number than the post-war average loss of **23** seats for Republican presidents. The last time the Republicans lost more seats than in 2018 was in 1974 after Gerald Ford took over from Richard Nixon following the Watergate scandal. | | [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/15/40/1540bec0-7154-4feb-b8e1-97f579155b08/content/images/2025/04/0000209f-min.jpg)](https://storage.ghost.io/c/15/40/1540bec0-7154-4feb-b8e1-97f579155b08/content/images/2025/04/0000209f-min.jpg?ref=europeans.today)// EUROPEANS TODAY | | | | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | Currently, the president’s current approval ratings might suggest that the loss of seats by Republicans is likely to be greater in next year’s midterm elections than it was in 2018\. In [October 2018, Trump’s](https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport%5F5S8itEd.pdf?ref=europeans.today) approval rating was **41%**, whereas it currently stands at **45%** (with **52%** disapproving) in the *Economist/YouGov* survey. However, the current approval rating does not take into account the medium to longer-term effects of the economic turmoil and market instability triggered by his policies. Tariffs, in particular, are very likely to increase inflation and slow economic growth both in the US and [the rest of the world](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0161893820300430?ref=europeans.today). This is likely to damage his approval ratings. In the UK, Conservative Prime Minister Liz Truss [spooked the bond market](https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/14/investing/uk-market-credibility-truss/index.html?ref=europeans.today) in the autumn of 2022 by proposing large unfunded tax cuts. She was rapidly removed by her party from the job of leader and prime minister. This was followed by a crushing defeat for the party in the 2024 election. The same could happen to the Republicans, although the voters will have to wait until next year to make their presence felt. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/15/40/1540bec0-7154-4feb-b8e1-97f579155b08/content/images/2021/09/end-flat-1.png) ### --- ### **Sources:** ##### ▪ This piece was originally published in [The Conversation](https://theconversation.com/have-trumps-tariffs-affected-his-popularity-heres-what-approval-data-shows-254725?ref=europeans.today) and re-published in Europeans TODAY on 17 April 2025\. | The author writes in a personal capacity. ##### ▪ **Cover:** Dreamstime/[Anton Andrianov](https://www.dreamstime.com/andrua%5Finfo?ref=europeans.today). --- ![The Conversation](https://counter.theconversation.com/content/254725/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic)