Friedrich Merz confirmed as Germany’s chancellor – but betrayal by MPs in a secret ballot means he starts from a position of weakness

F riedrich Merz has been confirmed as Germany’s new chancellor after a close shave left his future in doubt.

Merz lost a first round of voting among MPs gathered to confirm his role, and may never know who among his own coalition betrayed him. After the shock of the morning vote, a second vote was called, and whoever was blocking his path appears to have stood down.

Merz’s CDU/CSU had struck a coalition deal with the social democratic SPD. Ministers were nominated and ready to take office, and Merz’s election as chancellor was scheduled for the morning of May 6. But for much of the morning, this looked uncertain.

Candidates for chancellor regularly fall short of the number of votes they’d expect to receive (from MPs in their own party and from their coalition partner), and there have been some close-run races, such as Helmut Kohl in 1994, who made it through by just one vote. But this was the first time a candidate had lost the vote.

Merz fell dramatically short in the first round, receiving only 310 votes. That’s 6 below the overall majority he needed, and 18 below the number of MPs in his own CDU/CSU/SPD coalition. Germany’s constitution requires this ballot to be secret, so we don’t know and may never find out who voted against Merz.

In the second round of votes, hastily organised after Merz’s failure in the first, 325 votes, more than 316 required. There were 289 votes against, 1 abstention and 3 invalid votes.

Merz will now hope the first vote can be dismissed as a “false start” and that life will quickly move on.

// EUROPEANS TODAY

Why did this happen?

There are four groups of MPs who might have, in secret, voted against Merz in the first round. It’s possible that all four were represented in the group – and we will never know for sure.

The first is those CDU/CSU parliamentarians who were unhappy with Merz. In particular, just days after his election, when he argued for balanced budgets, he pushed through a reform of Germany’s constitutional restrictions on government debt to allow extra defence and infrastructure spending. This irked fiscal hawks, some of whom may have decided to send him a message during the vote.

The second is those CDU/CSU MPs who had hoped for ministerial office and missed out. This was inevitable, especially since Merz secured fewer cabinet positions than had been expected for his own party. The third group would be made up of SPD MPs who missed out on a ministerial post or were unhappy with the choices of ministers.

Fourth, suspicion will fall on some of the leftwing MPs who have policy disagreements with Merz. His decision to vote with the far-right AfD on immigration policy before the election caused great anger. There are internal SPD critics who feel the coalition agreement makes too many concessions to Merz, particularly on immigration.

One message about the new government is clear: it had hoped to be more united than its predecessor, the three-party coalition, which was frequently consumed by public quarrelling and in the end collapsed over budget policy. Those ambitions have fallen at the first hurdle.

We should not overstate the risks to government stability. Most votes happen in public, not secret, so MPs are much more likely to tow the government line from here on. And chancellors have often governed with smaller majorities for an extended period.

However, this debacle is a bad omen. If Merz turns things around quickly, this episode can be forgotten. But if he doesn’t, this early blow to his authority will embolden the AfD, which will point to the apparent dysfunction of mainstream parties and capitalise on public dissatisfaction. Nor will this blow to Merz’s authority help him realise his ambition to show leadership in Europe.

Merz’s poll standing was already weak, and these events risk causing further damage. His first days in the job will now be even more difficult than he expected.

GOING FURTHER

• Germany's Merz becomes chancellor after surviving historic vote failure | BBC NEWS

• Chancellor on pause: Bundestag stings Friedrich Merz on day one | FINANCIAL TIMES

• Co-leader of AfD congratulates Friedrich Merz on becoming German chancellor | SKY NEWS

Sources:

▪ This piece was originally published in The Conversation and re-published in Europeans TODAY on 6 May 2025. | The author writes in a personal capacity.

▪ Cover: Shutterstock/Juergen Nowak.