The following charts display the voting intention percentages for the next general election in the UK (expected to take place in 2029). The charts are updated regularly.

Analysis

Reform UK Maintains Momentum

Continuing its notable surge, Reform UK holds steady this week at 29%, maintaining its position as the leading political force in the latest YouGov polling. Last week's rapid growth seems consolidated, reflecting sustained voter appeal.

Labour Stagnates

Labour remains static at 22%, unable to capitalise further on public dissatisfaction with the current government. This lack of movement suggests deeper structural weaknesses or limited appeal, despite ongoing government fatigue.

Conservative Slide Halts Temporarily

After a significant 3-point drop last week, the Conservatives stabilise at 16%, but remain at historically low levels. The party continues struggling to halt voter migration towards Reform UK.

Greens Rising, Lib Dems Steady

The Green Party continues its modest yet consistent growth, climbing 1 point to reach 10%. The Liberal Democrats hold their ground at 17%, highlighting their steady, moderate appeal among progressive voters.

Seat Projection (2029): Major Impact of Voting Systems

• First Past the Post (FPTP): A hung parliament remains highly probable. Reform UK and Labour emerge as primary parties, though neither is able to secure a majority. Conservatives face severe losses, dropping dramatically to third place.
• Proportional Representation (PR): Under a PR scenario, Reform UK would dominate seat allocation, reflecting its strong polling numbers, followed by Labour and a significantly reduced Conservative presence. Smaller parties, including the Greens, SNP, and Lib Dems, would see substantial gains, reshaping parliamentary dynamics profoundly.

Coalition Speculations

• Right-wing coalition: A Reform UK-led government with Conservative support remains a plausible scenario under FPTP.
• Left-wing coalition: Labour, Lib Dems, Greens, and possibly SNP could forge an alliance, but their combined numbers still may fall short of a stable majority.

Conclusion

Voter volatility continues to reshape the UK's political landscape profoundly. Reform UK’s sustained lead challenges traditional party structures, while Labour’s inability to capitalise and Conservative struggles indicate ongoing realignment ahead of the 2029 election.