The following chart displays the voting intention percentages for the upcoming elections in various European countries this year, alongside the political groups and ideologies represented by the parties or candidates, ranging from the far left to the far right of the political spectrum. The chart is updated regularly.

The chart categorises political parties or candidates standing in national or local elections across Europe according to their affiliations at the European Parliament or the closest equivalent group. (Click here to find a quick breakdown of what each colour-coded group represents.)

Analysis

🇵🇱 POLAND | 1 June Presidential Election

• Poland’s presidential election is poised to be exceptionally tight, featuring a runoff between centrist candidate Rafał Trzaskowski and conservative historian Karol Nawrocki. Recent opinion polls reflect a razor-thin margin:
• IPSOS / TVP Info (May 20–22): Rafał Trzaskowski (Centre) at 46.9%, Karol Nawrocki (Far-Right) also at 46.9%, with 6% undecided voters.
• Trzaskowski, the mayor of Warsaw, supports pro-European and liberal policies, particularly emphasising sustained backing for Ukraine amidst ongoing conflict with Russia. Conversely, Nawrocki, backed by the Law and Justice Party (PiS), represents a more nationalist, Eurosceptic stance, opposing Ukrainian NATO membership and advocating more conservative domestic policies. The election is widely perceived as a decisive indicator of Poland’s future political and European trajectory.

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🇫🇷 FRANCE | (Potential) July-2025 Parliamentary Election

• Polling in France indicates significant fragmentation, dominated by Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National (RN), currently polling at 35%. The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) follows at 19%, with President Macron’s centrist Ensemble coalition at 15% and the traditional conservative Les Républicains at 12%.
• These numbers highlight the ongoing strength of nationalist and Eurosceptic sentiments, coupled with persistent divisions within left-wing and moderate centrist ranks, indicating potential complexities in government formation.

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🇳🇴 NORWAY | 8 September Parliamentary Elections

• In Norway, recent opinion polls indicate a nuanced political scene, with the Labour Party (Ap) leading at 29%. However, the Progress Party (FrP) and Conservative Party (H) collectively hold a substantial combined support of around 47.9%, signalling possible challenges to Labour’s dominance.

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🇨🇿 CZECHIA | 3 October Parliamentary Elections

• The Czech Republic’s election polls show a strong support for far-right and nationalist parties (49.8%). The centre-right trails significantly at 30.2%. The Left parties are far behind with a combined 12.6%.

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🇫🇷 FRANCE | 2027 Presidential Election

• Early opinion polling for the 2027 French presidential election shows the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) leading with 36%. The likely RN candidate is Jordan Bardela, as Marine Le Pen’s candidacy remains pending due to a trial appeal. Other potential candidates include Edouard Philippe representing President Macron’s Ensemble party (23%), Xavier Bertrand or Bruno Retailleau for the centre-right Les Républicains (LR) polling at 7%, and left-wing candidates Jean-Luc Mélenchon or François Ruffin for the New Popular Front (NFP) polling at 13%.
• This scenario suggests strong nationalist support, with significant challenges facing left-wing parties in consolidating their base.

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🔍 Cross-European Snapshot:

• Surge of Far-Right: Countries like Poland, Norway, Czechia, and France are witnessing strong far-right momentum, often surpassing or rivalling traditional centre-right parties.
• Centrist Stability: The RENEW group remains a pillar of stability in a couple of countries but is in decline otherwise.
• Decline of Traditional Left and Right: The traditional Left and Right parties are in decline in most countries, except in Czechia, where it is stable.

Here is a quick breakdown of what each colour-coded group represents in our chart:

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🟤 FAR-LEFT (GUE/NGL)

• European Affiliation: The European United Left–Nordic Green Left (GUE/NGL).
• Ideology: Far-left, anti-capitalist, socialist or communist.
• Example Parties: La France Insoumise (France), Die Linke (Germany), Bloco de Esquerda (Portugal).

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🟢 GREEN (EFA)

• European Affiliation: Greens/European Free Alliance (Greens/EFA).
• Ideology: Green politics, environmentalism, social justice, and regionalism.
• Example Parties: Die Grünen (Germany), Europe Ecologie Les Verts (France), PAN (Portugal), Green Party (UK).

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🔴 LEFT (S&D)

• European Affiliation: Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D).
• Ideology: Centre-left, social democratic.
• Example Parties: PSOE (Spain), Partito Democratico (Italy), SPD (Germany), PS (Portugal), Labour Party (UK).

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🟡 CENTRE (RENEW)

• European Affiliation: Renew Europe (centrist/liberal group).
• Ideology: Liberalism, pro-European integration.
• Example Parties: Ensemble (France), Modem (France), Ciudadanos (Spain), ALDE-affiliated parties, Liberal Democrats (UK).

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🔵 CENTRE-RIGHT (EPP)

• European Affiliation: European People’s Party (EPP).
• Ideology: Centre-right, Christian democracy, conservatism.
• Example Parties: CDU/CSU (Germany), Partido Popular (Spain), PSD (Portugal), Les Républicains (France), Conservative Party (UK).

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⚫ FAR-RIGHT (ECR/ID/others)

• European Affiliation: A combination of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), Identity and Democracy (ID), and other hard-right or nationalist groups.
• Ideology: Right-wing to far-right, often nationalist, anti-immigration, and Eurosceptic.
• Example Parties: PiS (Poland), Rassemblement National (France), Lega (Italy), Reform UK (UK).

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Sources:

▪ Cover: Unsplash/LXRCBSV. (Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.)

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