The following charts display the voting intention percentages for the next general election in the UK (expected to take place in 2029). The charts are updated regularly.

Analysis

Reform UK solidifies dominance

Reform UK remains consistently strong at 29%, maintaining its status as the UK’s leading political force. This consistency underscores sustained voter dissatisfaction with traditional party structures and a preference for reformist alternatives.

Labour dips slightly

Labour sees a modest drop, falling 1 point to 21%, suggesting persistent struggles in reclaiming voter trust. Labour’s inability to capitalise significantly on governmental issues is increasingly evident, highlighting vulnerabilities ahead of 2029.

Conservatives make a minor recovery

The Conservative Party slightly recovers, increasing by 3 points to 19%. Although this rebound temporarily halts their decline, they remain significantly below traditional expectations and historical norms.

Green momentum builds, Lib Dems decline

The Green Party continues its gradual climb, up another point to 11%, reflecting a steady appeal among younger and environmentally focused voters. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats decline slightly, dropping 2 points to 15%, suggesting shifting dynamics among progressive voters.

Seat projection comparisons

• Currently: Labour holds a commanding majority. The Conservatives and Lib Dems are significantly behind, highlighting a stark contrast to current polling dynamics.
• First Past the Post (FPTP): Reform’s surge dramatically alters seat distributions, creating a hung parliament scenario. Neither Reform nor Labour can achieve a stable majority independently, underscoring the profound realignment underway.
• Proportional Representation (PR): Under PR, Reform dominates, vastly outperforming Labour and the Conservatives. Smaller parties, notably the Greens and Lib Dems, see more proportionate representation, amplifying their political influence.

Implications for UK politics

These projections reveal a deepening fracture within traditional UK politics. Reform’s stability suggests lasting voter sentiment for significant change, potentially reshaping party structures long-term. The Conservative Party’s mild resurgence might temporarily stabilise some internal concerns, but it remains insufficient to restore its traditional dominance. Labour’s stagnation highlights deeper challenges requiring strategic shifts.

The stark differences between electoral systems (FPTP vs. PR) underscore calls for electoral reform, which may gain momentum if voter dissatisfaction with outcomes under FPTP grows.

Coalition prospects

• Right-wing coalition: Likely dominated by Reform with Conservative backing; could reshape governance fundamentally.
• Left-wing coalition: Possible but challenging; Labour would need substantial cooperation from Greens, Lib Dems, and possibly SNP to form a viable administration.

Prime ministerial prospects

Based on the latest seat projections, Keir Starmer has roughly a 35% chance of becoming the next Prime Minister under the FPTP system, largely reliant on a viable centre-left coalition. Under PR, his chances rise slightly to 40% due to more proportionate representation, which bolsters potential allies like the Lib Dems and Greens.

Nigel Farage has around a 30% chance under FPTP due to strong Reform polling but limited coalition avenues. Under PR, his prospects significantly improve to approximately 45%, as Reform would hold the most seats and potentially lead a right-leaning bloc.

Kemi Badenoch faces a difficult path: under FPTP, she has about a 15% chance, with slightly better odds of 20% under PR, mostly as a junior partner in a coalition.

Ed Davey has slim direct chances, 5% under FPTP and 10% under PR, though he could be pivotal in coalition talks.

Conclusion

The UK’s political landscape remains highly volatile, with Reform’s sustained performance significantly challenging traditional power dynamics. Electoral reform debates could intensify as voters and parties grapple with the implications of these transformative shifts.