The following charts display the voting intention percentages for the next general election in the UK (expected to take place in 2029). The charts are updated regularly.

Analysis

Reform UK solidifies dominance

• Reform UK climbs back to 29%, reaffirming its role as the UK's leading political force. This slight uptick reflects enduring public frustration with mainstream parties and consistent support for populist alternatives.

Labour ticks upward

• Labour edges up by 1 point to 23%, showing modest recovery. While still behind Reform, the gain suggests renewed traction with key voter blocs.

Conservatives lose ground

• The Conservatives dip slightly to 17%, continuing their downward drift. Although still a major player, their polling places them behind both Labour and Reform, revealing ongoing weakness.

Greens rebound, Lib Dems decline

• The Green Party rises 1 point to 10%, regaining momentum after last week's dip. In contrast, the Liberal Democrats fall by 2 points to 15%, possibly losing progressive voters to Labour or Greens.

Seat projection comparisons

• Currently: Labour maintains a large parliamentary majority, but this dominance is disconnected from current polling figures.
• First Past the Post (FPTP): Reform’s strength produces a hung parliament. The Conservatives fall further behind, while Labour’s modest gains are not enough to reach a majority alone.
• Proportional Representation (PR): Reform dominates with a clear plurality. The system favours smaller parties, granting the Greens, Lib Dems, and SNP stronger influence compared to FPTP.

Implications for UK politics

• The new data reinforces the breakdown of traditional voting patterns. Reform’s lead reveals ongoing public appetite for change, while Labour’s modest gains signal stabilisation. The Conservatives’ drop renews questions about their leadership and strategy. Meanwhile, PR continues to expose how FPTP misrepresents vote share.

Coalition prospects

• Right-wing coalition: Still led by Reform with possible Conservative support, but vulnerable to internal strain.
• Left-wing coalition: Slightly more feasible with Labour’s rise, but still dependent on multi-party cooperation with Greens, Lib Dems, and SNP.

Prime ministerial prospects

Based on the latest projections:

• Keir Starmer: 36% under FPTP, 41% under PR. Gains modestly from Labour's small rise and improved coalition math.
• Nigel Farage: 31% under FPTP, 44% under PR. Reform’s resilience supports his ambitions, especially under a fairer seat system.
• Kemi Badenoch: 13% under FPTP, 15% under PR. Tory slide reduces viability, though she remains a potential junior partner.
• Ed Davey: 5% under FPTP, 9% under PR. Coalition kingmaker, but unlikely to lead directly.

Conclusion

Reform UK reclaims momentum, Labour inches forward, and the Conservatives continue to falter. As electoral realities diverge between systems, pressure may grow for systemic reform. The UK’s political future remains highly fluid.