UK Politics Keir Starmer Labour Party Labour Leadership Labour Leadership Challenge United Kingdom Westminster TODAY+ Labour Government

How Starmer could win a Labour leadership fight, and how he could lose it

Keir Starmer is under heavy pressure, but his opponents still face a procedural problem. To remove a sitting Labour leader, they need more than public revolt. They need a challenger, enough nominations, and a ballot that members can be persuaded to decide against the incumbent.

by TODAY

Updated 14-May-2026

Keir Starmer’s critics in Labour want him gone, but removing a sitting leader is harder than Westminster speculation suggests. After Labour’s heavy local election losses, pressure on the prime minister is real. But as of Wednesday 13 May, no challenger had formally secured the backing needed to force a contest.

The first rule is the most important. A Labour leadership challenge begins only if a rival wins the written support of 20% of Labour MPs. Current reporting has put that threshold at more than 80 MPs. If a challenger reaches it, the party would organise a full leadership election, and Starmer, as the incumbent, would automatically go on the ballot if he chose to stay in the race.

Public anger alone cannot remove him as Labour leader. MPs can call for his resignation, ministers can resign, and rivals can manoeuvre, but unless a named opponent gathers enough support, there will be no formal contest. That has been Starmer’s immediate protection during this crisis. His authority has clearly been weakened, but the anticipated rebellion has yet to produce a single candidate with enough backing to move forward.

If a contest did begin, Starmer could still survive. Labour uses a preferential voting system, which means voters rank candidates rather than choosing only one. In a three-way race, that could matter a great deal. The Guardian has reported that some Labour MPs fear Starmer could remain leader even if he came second on first preferences, because he might attract enough lower-preference support to overtake a more divisive rival as other candidates drop out.

The same rules could also help bring him down. The clearest threat comes from a serious challenger who can rally enough MPs to trigger a contest and persuade party members and affiliates that Labour needs a reset. Starmer would face greater danger in a direct two-person race than in a crowded field, because the anti-Starmer vote would be less likely to split. He would also be more exposed if election losses, ministerial resignations and union discontent hardened into a broader judgment that he could not lead Labour into the next general election.

For now, the rules still protect him. They do not make him safe. They simply mean that his opponents need more than outrage. They need a challenger, enough nominations and a majority across the wider party.