Nigel Farage on course for Downing Street in latest 2029 projection

It was a quiet electoral revolution, not televised with trumpets but charted in blue bars and projected dots. In a shock recalibration of Britain’s political geography, Reform UK has surged to a projected 30% of the national vote, eclipsing both Labour (20%) and the Conservatives (15%), according to the BBC’s Projected National Share (PNS) derived from the 2025 local elections.

This marks the first time in modern history that a political force other than Labour or the Conservatives has topped the national vote share. If translated into a General Election tomorrow, using modelling from Ben Ansell of Nuffield College, Oxford, Reform UK would clinch a narrow majority of four seats, propelling Nigel Farage into Number 10.

It is a story not just of electoral arithmetic but of political dislocation. It poses a fundamental question: is Britain witnessing the fragmentation of its two-party order or the formation of something entirely new?

Collapse of the “Natural Party of Government”

The Conservative Party’s projected 15% share marks its lowest-ever recorded national vote estimate, tumbling below even the 2019 nadir under Theresa May. What’s more telling is that this comes after nearly 15 years in office, suggesting not a temporary backlash but a potential systemic rejection.

Professor Sir John Curtice, Britain’s foremost polling expert, captures the gravity: “This is the first time that the combined share of the vote for Conservative and Labour has been below 50%... underlining the fragmentation of British politics in these elections.”