The Donroe divide: Trump fences the Americas, Putin takes the East

H istory does not repeat itself, but in the hands of Donald Trump, it certainly plagiarises. The 47th President’s recent seizure of power — and personnel — in Venezuela is not merely a bout of gunboat diplomacy; it is the kinetic unveiling of the “Donroe Doctrine.”

By bastardising James Monroe’s 1823 warning against European meddling into a 2026 manifesto of hemispheric ownership, Trump has signalled a terrifying geopolitical trade-off. He is fencing off the Americas as a resource-rich fortress, whilst effectively handing the keys of Eurasia to Vladimir Putin.

The Caracas Corollary

The sheer audacity of the weekend’s operation in Caracas — a special forces snatch-and-grab of Nicolás Maduro that would make a Tom Clancy editor blush — has left the international legal order in tatters. But to view this merely as “regime change” is to miss the forest for the oil derricks. As Secretary of State Marco Rubio clarified with chilling technocratic precision, this is about “stabilisation” and “recovery,” euphemisms for the seizure of 50 million barrels of crude.

The message from the White House is devoid of the usual democratic window dressing. There is no pretence of nation-building here, only asset-stripping. The “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine creates a closed loop: Venezuela’s oil will be sold, the proceeds held in US-controlled escrow, and the funds released only to buy American goods. It is a mercantile closed shop, enforced by the US Navy.

The interception of the Russian-flagged tanker Marinera in the North Atlantic underscores the lethality of this new blockade. By boarding a vessel flying the tricolour of a nuclear superpower, Washington has proven it is willing to risk kinetic engagement to seal the Western Hemisphere. The Kremlin’s response — muted outrage and a demand for the crew’s return — suggests Moscow understands the game better than Brussels does. Putin is losing a pawn in Caracas, but he is eyeing the board.

The Arctic Ultimatum

If Venezuela is the resource hub of the Donroe Doctrine, Greenland is its strategic rampart. The notion of the US purchasing the world’s largest island, once dismissed as a Mar-a-Lago fever dream, has hardened into operational policy. With the White House Press Secretary explicitly stating that military options remain “at the Commander-in-Chief’s disposal”, the threat to Danish sovereignty is existential.

For Europe, this is the moment the transatlantic spine finally snaps. NATO’s Article 5 is predicated on the assumption that the threat comes from the East. What happens when the danger comes from the West? Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s warning that a move on Greenland would mean “the end of the alliance” is not hyperbole. Trump views the Arctic not as a shared global common, but as a driveway to the American fortress that must be secured against Chinese icebreakers.

The silence from Berlin and Paris is deafening. European leaders are paralysed, caught between a Russian hammer and an American anvil. They are terrified that standing up for Nuuk will precipitate the final US withdrawal from NATO, leaving the continent naked before a revanchist Russia.

The Eurasian Void

This brings us to the dark logic of the trade. While Trump builds his fortress in the Americas, he is conducting a fire sale in Europe. His 20-point “peace plan” for Ukraine — a diluted version of an earlier 28-point surrender — is effectively a recognition of Russian conquest. By freezing the conflict along current lines and denying Kyiv security guarantees, Washington is signalling that its bandwidth for Eurasian security has reached zero.

Putin, a veteran of the long game, is delighted. He understands that the Donroe Doctrine is, by definition, isolationist regarding the Old World. Every US Marine deployed to guard an oil terminal in Maracaibo is one less soldier available for the Suwałki Gap. As the Russian foreign ministry issues pro forma complaints about the Marinera, the Kremlin’s strategists are likely toasting the “Wild West” realpolitik. An America obsessed with its own “neighbourhood” is an America that will eventually lose interest in the Donbas.

The New Bipolarity

We are witnessing the liquidation of the post-1945 order. In its place rises a transactionalist nightmare: a bipolar world of raw spheres of influence. Trump secures the resources of the Western Hemisphere — Venezuelan oil, Greenlandic rare earths, Canadian water — to build an autarkic empire impervious to global chaos. In exchange, he allows the wolves to roam free in Eurasia.

The “Donroe Doctrine” is not about peace; it is about isolation. It creates a reality where sovereignty is a privilege of the strong, and the “rules-based order” is just a fairytale we used to tell our children. For Ukraine, Taiwan, and perhaps even Denmark, the winter is about to get very cold indeed.

GOING FURTHER

• How the Monroe Doctrine factors into the U.S. arrest of Venezuela's Maduro | PBS

• Deconstructing Russia’s Plans for Greater Eurasia: Where Theory Meets Supply Chains | ROYAL UNITED SERVICES INSTITUTE FOR DEFENCE AND SECURITY STUDIES

• Stability, recovery and transition: US lays out three-phase plan for Venezuela after seizure of Maduro | FIRSTPOST

• Trump says Venezuela will 'turn over' up to 50 million barrels of oil | NBC NEWS

• Trump says Venezuela will purchase American products with revenue from oil deal | CNBC

• US seizes Russian-flagged tanker in Atlantic as UK confirms it gave support to operation | BBC NEWS

• The Most Dangerous Place on Earth | POLITICO

Sources:

▪ This piece was first published in Europeans TODAY on 8 January 2026.

▪ Cover: Dreamstime/KORWEN.