Europe must stop waiting for America to return to normal
As great-power rivalry deepens and US reliability weakens, Europe, Canada, Japan and other middle powers face a harder question: how to defend the institutions they still need.
Europe’s security problem is no longer only the aggression of hostile powers. It is the growing uncertainty around the power it has long trusted most.
The United States still matters enormously to European defence. That will not change quickly. But the assumption that Washington will always treat alliances, institutions and international law as strategic assets has been badly weakened. Under Donald Trump, allies have been treated less as partners in a shared order than as costs, rivals or bargaining chips.
Ukraine shows why this matters: Russia’s latest overnight drone and missile strikes killed at least seven people and hit civilian infrastructure, including homes and energy facilities.
That shift cannot be dismissed as the style of one man. Even if future presidents govern differently, Europe has now seen how quickly American policy can turn. The old comfort, that the transatlantic alliance would simply reset after a political shock, is no longer enough.
This is why Mark Carney’s call for cooperation among “middle powers” matters. Europe, Canada, Japan, and democratic partners across Asia cannot replace the United States. But they can reduce their exposure to superpower pressure by working more closely on energy, supply chains, critical minerals, climate policy, defence, and international law.
The point is not anti-Americanism. It is preparation. The rules-based order will not survive on nostalgia. If Europe wants it protected, it must help build the power to protect it.
GOING FURTHER
Russian airstrikes kill at least seven people in Ukraine overnight | The Guardian
Russia and Ukraine exchange attacks, killing and wounding dozens, as Zelenskyy calls for more talks | Associated Press
Navigating a More Dangerous World: How Can We Survive and Prosper? | RUSI
Japan in a world of rising middle powers | World Economic Forum
Fears about the US are leading to a new world of balancing for the EU and middle powers | LSE
Trump’s security strategy slams European allies and asserts U.S. power in Western Hemisphere | PBS NewsHour
Carney’s Remarkable Message to Middle Powers | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Sources:
▪ This piece was first published in Europeans TODAY on 25 April 2026.
▪ Cover: Dreamstime/KORWEN.
