Mid-terms are not the final answer

🔍 WHY THIS STORY MATTERS
Voters are weighing affordability, the Iran war and presidential power as they decide control of Congress, with the result potentially reshaping economic policy, congressional oversight and the balance between the legislative and executive branches.

KEY TAKEAWAYS...

● Affordability remains a dominant voter concern, with high fuel, food, housing and healthcare costs putting Republicans under electoral pressure.

● Democrats appear well positioned to contest control of the House, although polling uncertainty means neither chamber is guaranteed.

● Democratic congressional majorities could intensify oversight of the Trump administration but would still face presidential veto power and Senate supermajority requirements.

● Changing control of Congress would not by itself guarantee lower consumer prices, particularly while energy, trade and other inflationary pressures remain.

A s the midterm elections approach, to defend his war with Iran President Trump likes to say: “Americans are happy to pay extra to keep Iran from getting a nuclear bomb.”

Taxpayers are responding with: “We don’t want to pay extra because Republicans are in office. We want them out.”

Thus polls, at the moment, are showing a likely Democratic wave for Congress in November. Will it mean majorities in the House and Senate?

Dunno.

To respond to the affordability crisis and thus the losses the President’s team sees happening, the President has tried:

• Proposing to end beef tariffs to lower beef costs. Ranchers, a key constituency of his, protested
• Instituting high tariffs to punish exporting countries for allegedly taking advantage of American consumers. The result: Prices, as predicted by economists for decades and evidenced by Hawley-Smoot 100 years ago, increased on Americans
• Proposes cutting $5,000 checks to every taxpayer IF they elect a Republican Congress. Even Republicans in Congress protested because they don’t want to add to the national debt which has hit $40 trillion under Trump
• Pronounces magically that prices have gone down during his presidency. The facts are different: the consumer price index has increased from 3.4 percent to 4.3 percent since he took office. Ground beef and steak prices are up about 20 percent. Gas surged more than 30 percent. Rent, up. Airfare, up. Health care, up.

Not a winning formula for Republicans in November and the polls are indicating (and they can, and will change) that Democrats may take control for the next Congress.

That doesn’t only mean Trump’s agenda (if you can name what it is) is dead. It will mean that rather than the Congress looking the other way and the Supreme Court endorsing much of his whittling of power away from the Legislative branch to the Executive branch, the Congress will take back some of its authority.

If Democrats take power, it will mean two years of hearings, investigations and, likely, impeachment though as with his first two impeachments in his first term, it still will take two-thirds of the Senate to convict him, thus conviction is unlikely.

So, is the future brighter for consumers? Maybe but it’s not a sure thing.

It means Democrats need a legislative strategy to make things better for consumers. And, they will need a signature from the President to make their strategy law. Overriding a presidential veto takes two-thirds majority in the House and the Senate. Democrats, even if they retake power, won’t have it at those levels.

So, taking over majorities in the Congress doesn’t mean life automatically gets better for American consumers.

It might mean, though, that the damage Mr. Trump is doing to our democracy may stop or at least be slowed.

It means Congress will begin retrieving the power Trump has taken away.

It may not mean an end to the madness.

But it’s an important step toward sanity.

🔮 WHAT MATTERS NEXT...

🎯 WHAT TO WATCH NEXT:

● Election results in competitive House districts will determine whether the polling advantage translated into enough Democratic gains for control of the chamber.

● The Senate remains a separate test: Democrats need gains across a more difficult map, making divided control of Congress a plausible outcome.

● Affordability will remain a pressure point after the election because congressional control alone cannot quickly reverse energy, trade or other forces affecting consumer prices.

● Watch whether any Democratic majority prioritises cost-of-living legislation and the Iran war or instead devotes substantial political capital to investigations of the administration.

🎯 MOST LIKELY OUTCOME:

● If current electoral pressures hold, Democrats could gain substantial leverage in Congress, but their ability to enact major economic changes would remain constrained by the Republican White House and the Senate’s voting requirements.

🎯 WHAT COULD CHANGE THE PICTURE:

● A polling error, unexpectedly different turnout or late shifts among voters concerned about prices and the Iran war could materially alter control of either chamber.

🎯 WHY THIS MATTERS:

● The election could change who scrutinises executive power and sets Congress’s agenda without necessarily resolving the affordability pressures driving much of the electorate’s dissatisfaction.

GOING FURTHER

• The House races that should raise alarms among Republicans | Washington Post

• Analysis: Republicans face a midterm reckoning of Trump’s making | Associated Press

• Voters angry about high prices may get little relief from the next Congress | Washington Post

• Voters prioritize costs and Iran over investigating Trump for next Congress, AP-NORC poll finds | Washington Post

• The big unknown behind Democrats’ polling leads | Axios

• Trump tariffs test Republicans ahead of midterms | Axios

• Cook Political Report moves 18 House races toward Democrats | Axios

Sources:

▪ This piece was first published in The Screaming Moderate and re-published in Europeans TODAY on 2 November 2026 under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International licence. | The author writes in a personal capacity.

▪ Cover: Dreamstime/KORWEN.