OPINION

Last week the Axis Of Autocracy was consummated.

— If Donald Trump is elected President in 2024, none of the world’s democracies will be safe or protected from China’s or Russia’s forced attempts to convert democracies to autocracies.

Analysis

Finland and Sweden’s desire to join Nato shows Putin has permanently redrawn the map of Europe.

— Sweden and Finland’s plans to join Nato are a symbol of a major shake-up of the European security order.

War in Ukraine

Russia may declare war on Ukraine on May 9 – and use it as a reason to double down on attacks.

— Western officials say that Russia may officially declare war on Ukraine on May 9. An international relations expert explains why this day is significant, and why a war declaration would matter.

France Presidential Election 2022

Emmanuel Macron is reelected but the French are longing for radical change.

— The next five years are going to be harder than Emmanuel Macron’s first term. To succeed he will need to keep radical parties at bay, accelerate measures on climate change, and steer the EU toward a stronger, more independent future.

OPINION

Putin’s retaliatory list is a badge of honour.

— Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has been included on a list of politicians from the UK who have been sanctioned by Vladimir Putin’s regime and banned from ever visiting Russia again. Wee Ginger Dug explains what it means for Scotland.

War in Ukraine

Sweden and Finland eye the Nato option, but it’s a security dilemma for the west.

— Nato enlargement to Sweden and Finland could be a dangerous strategy if it backs Russia into a corner. Vladimir Putin may well turn to his often-threatened nuclear capability.

France Presidential Election 2022

Economic fallout from Ukraine war could give Le Pen’s social-populist strategy an edge.

— Under fire for her past Russian links, far-right candidate Marine Le Pen may still be within reach of the second round of the French presidential elections against Emmanuel Macron thanks to her left-leaning economic agenda.

COMMENT

A telling story about Putin’s state of mind from a European diplomat.

— How the story from a former ambassador in Moscow about Vladimir Putin suggests that the Russian leader’s apparent goal might be far larger than any peace deal with Ukraine.

War in Ukraine

What game theory can tell us about how Ukraine-Russia negotiations might go.

— The negotiations need to achieve a spectrum of wins and losses that could give every side a win – something hard to imagine at this point.

Long-Read

Vladimir Putin: A risk-taker who is gambling his country’s future.

— How did a young risk-taking politician take complete control of Russia and destabilise Europe and the US? Twenty years on, his dangerously aggressive and risky rule must be ended.

War in Ukraine

How Russia is using intellectual property as a war tactic.

— The Russian government has essentially legalised intellectual piracy as a response to sanctions.

War in Ukraine

Ukraine: What might happen if the war spreads to a Nato country.

— Article 5 of the Nato treaty calls for collective defence if a member nation is attacked. But some Nato countries further from the conflict zone might be reluctant to send combat forces even in the event that Article 5 is triggered.

Long-Read

Ukraine and Brexit: Reminders, lessons and hopes.

— Of all the things to discuss in relation to the horrors of Ukraine, Brexit is low on the list. But there are multiple linkages, which Professor Chris Grey discusses as a series of reminders, lessons and hopes.

OPINION

Bear faced hypocrisy.

— As they lament the terrible spectacle of Vladimir Putin invading Ukraine, the UK Government’s hand-wringing has more than a touch of hypocrisy.

OPINION

To avoid an American war, Ukraine must be Poland, not the Rhineland.

— If the United States want to avoid a very-possible very-near future war with China over Taiwan, it must stand up now vigorously to Putin and Russia in Ukraine.

War in Ukraine

Russian opposition to the invasion of Ukraine is giving Putin cause for alarm.

— The Russian president has already shown he will come down hard on domestic opposition to the war in Ukraine. We will see a doubling down of repression, including to prevent any cascade of dissent that might shake the very foundations of Putin’s regime.